Deke Arndt, Climate Monitoring Branch Chief, National Climatic Data Center

Spring 2013 has brought something fairly unusual in recent years—colder-than-average temperature for the nation as a whole.

Invasions of Arctic air pushed repeatedly into the central United States during April, bringing record cold to some parts of the Upper Midwest. Yet it was much warmer than average in Florida and California.

Climate does vary from place to place. That’s why scientists who monitor the climate system track data in regions called climate divisions in order to understand climate variability at a regional level.

Let’s look at April temperatures going back to 1895 for three climate divisions. One had record cold. One was near average, and one was much warmer than average.

Record cold reached climate divisions in western Minnesota as well as North and South Dakota. In western Minnesota, April 2013 was clearly one for the record books. The average temperature was almost freezing for the month.

Check out the year-to-year variability in temperature. This year the average temperature was about 15 degrees colder than it was just 12 months ago. That’s a dramatic difference.

You can see that huge swings from year to year are common in the long-term record in this climate division. Because it’s in the north, this region is subject to more cold air invasions during April. If you live in Minnesota, you’re already aware that April can bring a wide range of outcomes that even dwarf the long-term temperature trend of 0.8 Fahrenheit per century.

Where I live in western North Carolina, people—including me—were talking about how cold it felt. And it was colder than most of the last few Aprils. But as you can see from the entire period of record, this year was very near the long-term trend line, which has increased about 2 degrees Fahrenheit since record-keeping began in 1895.

The year-to-year variation here in the southern Appalachians is not as dramatic as Minnesota or the Dakotas, but you can still see a lot of variation in this time series graph.

California shows patches of much-above-normal temperature on this map. The mountainous regions of southern California had temperature among the warmest 10 percents of all Aprils dating back to 1895.

The dip you see in this graph—and the more narrow range of temperatures—is common for climate divisions that are strongly influenced by the Pacific Ocean.

These are just three stories out of 344 climate divisions in the United States. If the cold temperature this spring has you wondering about your region’s climate, visit the NCDC Climate Monitoring pages where you can see the story of your own climate division.

When you know your region’s climate story, you can even help your neighbors be “climate-smart.”

From Asheville, North Carolina, I’m Deke Arndt.

Related
March 2013 Global Temperature Update
March: Out Like a Lion

During late winter, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas received sorely needed rain which helped reduce short-term impacts, like wildfire and dry topsoil.

But it has taken months to develop deep and severe drought in the region, and a few wet weeks won’t erase that situation. It can take months of ideal conditions to bring soil, rivers, and vegetation back to health.

Simply put, wet streets and green lawns don’t mean the drought is over in the southern plains.

Here’s what we will be monitoring moving forward to see if the drought is indeed reversing.

Week by week assessment is an important part of understanding climate phenomena that evolve slowly … like the drought that has blanketed much of the central and western United States for over a year.

In recent weeks, drought conditions have improved in the central and southern plains. These shifts are important — they mean people are suffering less and grain and cattle may be doing better too.

This region will need much more rain to get out of a deep drought like this one.

But its not as simple as a few heavy rain storms. When that happens, much of it runs off before it can soak into the ground, taking precious water literally downstream. The surest way to get out of a deep drought is repeated rainfall events over a long period of time. Gentle rains have time to sink in, and that brings soil back to its normal state.

The best-case scenario is consistent, moderate rainfall, but that scenario is becoming less common. In recent decades, more rain is coming during extreme precipitation events, especially in the Northeast, the Midwest, and the Plains. Longer periods of drought, punctuated by heavy rainfall, is consistent with what climate scientists have predicted will happen in our changing climate.

Climate observers will be hoping for gentle rain but preparing for what climate change says is increasingly likely; more extreme rainfall events that do not bring long-term improvement to drought-stricken areas.

It takes months to get into drought this deep, and it will take more than a few single rain events to get out. Breaking drought is not just about how much, but also about how often you receive rain. Understanding all this is climate smart.

From Asheville, I’m Deke Arndt.

On any given day or any given month, somebody somewhere– maybe even where you live– experiences colder-than-average temperature, even though the globe as a whole is warmer than average. Pockets of cold on a warming planet. How can both be true? It has been true for hundreds of months. These patterns are complex, but they’re not random.

Tracking global temperature starts with measurements in specific places. Long-term temperature records at stations like this establish what is “normal.” It’s the average temperature. Subtracting this average temperature from the observed temperature leaves a “temperature anomaly.”

The data from stations across large areas allow us to map these temperature anomalies around the globe. The red areas on this map were warmer than average during winter– December, January, and February. Blue areas were colder than the long-term averages. Last winter, the western United States was colder than average, but the East was warmer. Intense cold blanketed northeastern Asia while it was warmer than average just to the west. Even though there are a many pockets of cold, the overall global temperature was above average. The area with above-average temperature outweighed the area with below-average temperature.

Another interesting pattern is clear in this dataset. Notice that the temperature anomalies over the ocean are much more muted than over land. This is because the ocean warms, and cools, more slowly than land. Notice how much of the ocean is above average, though.

Moving into Spring, this March was below the 20th century average in the United States, but the overall global temperature remained above the long-term average.

In studying regional climate patterns, climatologists are learning about the planet as a whole. Understanding why one region differs from another takes an understanding about interactions among the atmosphere, the ocean, and even human decisions. Sometimes, being climate-smart can be as complex as the climate system itself.

From Asheville, North Carolina, I’m Deke Arndt

Related
March 2013 Global Temperature Update
March: Out Like a Lion

During March 2013, a broad swath of the country from the Great Lakes to Florida experienced very cold temperatures — for some states even colder than during January.
Big swings in temperature are often associated with signature pressure patterns. One of these is the Arctic Oscillation, which contributed to the late winter punch leading into Spring this year.

The Arctic Oscillation, or “AO”, is an index describing the difference in pressure between polar locations and mid-latitude locations. It quantifies a pressure pattern often associated with major cold air outbreaks in the mid latitudes, or whether polar air is confined to the higher latitudes.

A positive AO is often associated with fewer polar air masses plunging into our part of the world. But when the AO switches to its negative phase, frigid air can flow out of the Arctic and bring unusually cold weather farther south. In March 2013, the AO was, at times, about as negative as it’s been for decades, especially for the month of March, and we saw some bone-chilling outcomes in the Midwest.

A year ago, the nation experienced its warmest March on record. Look how hot it was across the country in March 2012, compared to how cold it was this year.

During March 2013, a very negative AO phase accompanied colder-than-average temperature in the United States — much colder than it was a year ago, when, you guessed it, the AO was largely positive.

The AO is difficult to predict beyond a week or two, but it can have a dramatic impacts in the United States, across Europe, or in northern Asia.

Even in a warming world, we will continue to have many natural cycles, like the Arctic Oscillation, that drive regional temperatures in the short term. Understanding these phenomena, and how they relate to what we experience, is Climate Smart.

From Asheville, North Carolina, I’m Deke Arndt.

Related
In stark contrast to last year, March 2013 cooler than average in U.S.
March 2013 Global Temperature Update
March 2013 National Climate Update
Forensic Meteorology Solves the Mystery of Record Snows
Anothery Wintry Winter for the Eastern U.S.
Summer Interlude Over, La Niña Returns to the Pacific
So far, Arctic Oscillation favoring mild winter for eastern U.S.

Mike Halpert, Acting Director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
The big story for the upcoming spring appears to be the expectations that drought will continue across large parts of the south-central and southwestern United States, even expanding into California and eastern Texas. Some of these areas, in particular in the central part of that region, have experienced drought now for over a year, and at this time we just don’t see relief coming during the next three months.

The temperature outlook for the months of April-May-June favors above-average temperatures across a large part of the United States, extending from the eastern seaboard, across the Midwest and the Southeast, into the central and southern Plains, and finally into the southwestern U.S. Above-average temperatures are also favored up in the northern parts of Alaska.

The only areas anticipated to see below-average temperatures are in a region from the Pacific Northwest extending along the U.S.-Canadian border through Montana and North Dakota. The region most likely to experience above-average temperatures this spring is in the south-sentral United States, a region centered on Texas. This is an area that has had extensive drought for the better part of the last year, and often-times during spring and summer, regions that are drier-than-average do experience above-average temperatures.

The outlook favors below-average precipitation in a region extending from much of the western part of the U.S. through the Southwest across Texas, the Gulf Coast, and much of Florida. Large parts of the U.S. (for precipitation) have an equal chance forecast, meaning that there is no tilt in the odds towards either above-, near-average, or below-average precipitation. The outlook favors above-average precipitation in the upper Midwest and regions centered on Northern Indiana.

There’s a tilt in the odds towards above-average precipitation in parts of the Midwest.
The outlook for Hawaii favors below-average precipitation and temperature. With regards to drought, parts of Hawaii as well as large sections of the central and western United States are also experiencing varying levels of drought.

Looking ahead three months, drought is expected to improve in parts of the Southeast, the western Great Lakes, and the northern Great Plains. However, unfortunately drought looks to be a continuing story in the Southwest and south-central U.S., with drought even developing in parts of California, eastern Texas, and the Florida peninsula. The Flood Outlook shows the region most under the gun for river flooding this spring is in the north-central Great Plains, particularly along the Red River of the North.

Ned Gardiner
NOAA produces the outlook to help communities and businesses prepare for the challenges spring is likely to present. From the Climate Prediction Center, I’m Ned Gardiner. Thank you for watching.

Related
2013 U.S. Winter Recap: Mixed Messages on Drought
Drought Impacts Continue to Pile Up
Water Waning into Winter
Baking the Breadbasket: Persistent Drought in the Heartland

There were many extreme weather events around the globe during 2012. Let’s take a look at the climate context.

Climate.gov presents Extreme Events of 2012: Global to Local Responses

Arctic sea ice reached a record low—about half the normal September area based on the 34-year satellite record. Over four and a half million square miles of ice melted, the largest annual sea ice loss on record for the Arctic.

Climatologists are interested in how this sea ice loss affects wind and temperature not only in the Arctic but at lower latitudes in the United States, Europe and Asia.

The entire Northern Hemisphere was warm during 2012. Drought affected agricultural regions in North America, Europe, eastern Russia, the Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. These warm conditions impacted grain yields, water supplies, and heat-related illness. Global food prices rose by 10 percent during July.

Major flooding battered other regions throughout the year.

During July, at least 32 people were killed in Japan as a year’s worth of rain fell in one weekend in some areas.

In August, the Philippines saw heavy monsoon rains that brought severe flooding. Eighty percent of the capital city of Manilla was under water, impacting 2.4 million people.

Beijing, China, also saw torrential rainfall, with daily totals normally expected over a period of two months.

Four typhoons struck Korea—something that hasn’t happened in the past five decades—and more than 200 people died.

Learning how our neighbors around the world cope with and adapt to extreme events can help us make better decisions, become more resilient, and be “climate smart.”

For climate.gov, I’m Deke Arndt.

Links
Extreme Events of 2012
2012—Warmest La Niña year on record

Drought, cold, and massive storms were among the devastating climate-related events that struck the United States in 2012. These events were incredibly destructive and disruptive for people across the country.

Climate.gov presents Extreme Events of 2012: Looking at the Big Picture

It’s official: 2012 was the hottest year on record for the contiguous United States. March kicked things into high gear, breaking its own record by a huge margin. July was then the warmest of more than 1,400 months on record, dating back to 1895. September was the 16th consecutive month with warmer than normal conditions—the longest streak in the nation’s climate record.

With all that heat came prolonged drought, which is ongoing as we begin the new year. Crops suffered, and the Mississippi River approached all-time lows at several locations. Without enough water, barge traffic on the river, critical for the nation’s commerce, nearly halted. The drought also set the stage for massive wildfires. Some of the largest fires occurred in New Mexico, Colorado, and Oregon. Across the nation, nearly 10 million acres burned during 2012.

Many of the 2012 extreme events were heat-related, but some parts of the U.S. experienced record cold and massive winter storms. In Alaska, January’s temperature was 14°F below the long-term average, setting records throughout the state. Anchorage received over 11 feet of snow last winter. Further south, a massive winter storm brought rain and snow into the Pacific Northwest in January. The storm produced hurricane-force winds, and a quarter-million homes lost power.

A massive derecho swept from the Great Lakes to the East Coast in June 2012. A derecho is a widespread, long-lived windstorm associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Over 250,000 customers lost power along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for several days due to downed trees. The derecho caused 28 fatalities, and the total damage was estimated at around $2.5 billion.

Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey, on October 29th and set the all-time lowest barometric pressure reading for the Northeast. Sandy’s large size and track brought record storm surge to many locations, including the Battery in New York City, which saw water levels close to 14 feet. And Sandy didn’t stop there. She also brought blizzard conditions for the central and southern Appalachians, with more than a foot of snow falling in six states. One hundred thirty fatalities were reported, and over 8 million households lost power due to this historic storm.

These massive events came from local ingredients mixed into and with the larger climate system. For example, the heat and drought were related to persistent high-pressure systems, while Sandy was born in a very warm and warming tropical Atlantic. The climate system is evolving and bringing these ingredients together in changing ways. These complex systems help climatologists to examine trends from our data records as well as explore the behavior of the Earth system changing in real-time. A better understanding of the relationship between climate and extreme weather is challenging, but it’s important, and it will help our nation become even more “climate smart.”

For climate.gov, I’m Deke Arndt.

Links

Featured Image. By a wide margin, 2012 was the United States’ warmest year on record.

The National Climatic Data Center’s State of the Climate. 2012 National Overview.

When the Pacific Ocean warms and cools with El Niño and La Niña, we see global temperature rise and fall. This pattern of ocean temperature variability plays into a long-term trend of rising global surface temperatures.

The signature pattern for El Niño is warmer-than-average surface temperature in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, such as this episode from 2009 and 2010. All that warm water heats the air above it, so when we have an El Niño we get warmer-than-average surface temperature patterns.

That leads to warmer global temperature. The “global temperature” is a single number calculated from observations around the world and throughout the year shown on maps like this.

The last El Niño episode—when the Pacific Ocean was warmer than average—was in 2010. You can see how much warmer it was than the following year, 2011. Cold water in the central and eastern Pacific marks a La Niña episode. That cold water pushed global surface temperature down compared to 2010.

How does this pattern play out in the long-term? Over the last five decades, the globally averaged surface temperature has creeped upward at about a quarter degree per decade. Notice that 2005 and 2010—both of which followed El Nino events—were the warmest recorded in the past 133 years. El Niños pushed these years over the top of long-term trends. La Niña years act as you would expect, lowering global temperature below the long-term trend line. The cold surface water in the Pacific lowers surface temperature in the air, and that affects global temperature.

Because of the long-term warming trend in globally averaged surface temperature, La Niña years have gotten warmer over recent decades. The global surface temperature during El Niño years is typically warmer than the global surface temperature in neighboring years. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are forcing a long-term trend, so climatologists compare these highs and lows to an average that is steadily increasing.

Because there was a La Niña event in the early part of this year, the global surface temperature for 2012 won’t break the high temperature record. However, the odds are that this will be the warmest of the La Niña years in the global climate record. The El Niño/La Niña pattern isn’t the only factor that drives year-to-year variability in the long term record, but it is definitely important. And it shows up clearly.

Knowing the difference between a long-term trend and short-term variability is a big part of being “climate smart.”

For Climate.Gov, I’m Deke Arndt.

Links

National Climatic Data Center’s International Climate Information

September 2012 Global Climate Update

Earth’s Fourth Warmest June on Record

In November, drought expanded throughout the continental United States. Shades of brown on this map indicate drought conditions each week during November. As you can see, over 60% of the contiguous United States is currently experiencing drought. The darkest areas in the center of the country are classified as “D4”, or “exceptional drought.” The Midwest, where conditions are most intense, has been in some level of drought for months due to lack of rain, lack of snowpack from last winter, and heat from this summer. The brown colors on this map show how rainfall was below average throughout the country in November.

Farmers are feeling the pinch from all of this lack of water. We’ve already seen damage to corn and soybeans. Now we’re beginning to see a diminished winter wheat crop. Wheat is a staple grain, but in the winter it often doubles as cattle forage. So it’s not just measured in loaves of bread, but also in pounds of cow!

As of November 27, the US Department of Agriculture estimated that 65% of the winter wheat grown in the United States was being affected by the drought. Nearly a quarter of the winter wheat crop is categorized either in poor or very poor condition. Across the Plains, winter wheat yields are below average, especially in Nebraska and South Dakota, the epicenter of drought conditions.

The drought has also caused a serious water shortage in two of the nation’s great rivers: the Missouri and the Mississippi. Reservoir managers along the Missouri are holding water back to ensure local supply. But less water from the Missouri means less water in the Mississippi. If Mississippi water levels drop further, barge traffic will be shut down. This would slow the delivery of commodities, including fuel, and drive up prices for consumers.

Drought can be a year-round climate event. Understanding drought conditions and how they are affecting us is part of being “climate smart.”

For climate.gov, I’m Deke Arndt.
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Related
November 2012 U.S. climate update: word of the month is “dry”
Downpours and Droughts: Timing is Everything
Updating the U.S Winter Outlook for 2012-13
Drought on the Rio Grande
Drought Reinforcing Drought in the U.S. Southern Plains

We service 90% of all the deep water activity in the Gulf of Mexico. And that’s where our energy is. That’s where we’re moving forward into the future.

There would be an $8 billion impact to the gross domestic product of this nation if Port Fourchon was inaccessible for a three-month period.

Tim Osborn, NOAA Office of Coast Survey

The experience we’ve seen is when Hurricane Katrina and Rita did major damage in the Gulf of Mexico and to this coast and to our refineries, we saw price spikes at the gas pump, and they were severe. The continuity of supply of energy that this country relies upon is so critical. I mean, we have no downtime. And one of the issues really comes down to is – do we have an operating roadway to a functional port, to a service base supporting the production that’s going on in the Gulf of Mexico today?

Chett Chiasson

That’s why we always bring back this key word all the time, which is resiliency. This country has finally seen that, especially in light of Katrina, Rita, Gustav, and Ike, and all the other storms that have come through. We understand that resiliency is key for us. We understand it here at the port. Our tenants here, servicing the oil and gas industry, understand it as well. You’ll see that, as far as construction goes. You’ll see buildings elevated. You’ll see hardening of structures because we know that as we go, so does our energy supply.

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Read the full-length feature story: Thriving on a Sinking Landscape